This series is undoubtedly England’s toughest series in the last two years: an England side minus Bresnan and one injury away from Bopara playing against an in-form Pakistan side finally united under their captain, Misbah ul-Haq.
The UAE is unknown territory for England. Pakistan only have the experience of the series against Sri Lanka in recent times of playing in the Middle East, but their side seems to lend itself more to the style of cricket to win in these conditions.
Misbah was recently quoted as saying that “It is hard to take wickets [here] but it is also hard to score runs”. Pakistan have enough of a varied attack and, unlike England, have more options. Mohammed Hafeez has greatly improved as a batsman and is a more than handy third spinner. In Ajmal, Pakistan have the most in-form spinner. Unlike Swann, he has a doosra and supposedly a “new” delivery which he has saved for England. Swann also recently struggled in India, albeit in ODI not tests, but he had an average summer, disguised by the incredible summer the seamers had. Furthermore, in Rehman, they have a spinner who is able, like Herath in the SA-Sri Lanka series, to keep the run-rate down, allowing the other bowlers to attack.
The Pakistani seamers also have the advantage as they are all quick and reliable reverse-swingers of the ball. Moreover, they have the advantage of being able to play a left-armer, in either Junaid Khan and Wahab Riaz.
The banning of Asif and Amir, which initially weakened their side, has given Pakistan an advantage that the majority of their attack has not been seen at close quarters by the English top order. Although Ajmal and Junaid Khan did play county cricket, the England top order were not available at the time. Gul did make the last tour, as did Riaz. Cheema is the most unknown quantity. He has an awkward action, causing the ball to angle across the left-handers, which may cause problems for Cook and especially Strauss.
Thankfully, there is a glimmer of hope. England are the number one side in the world and have, apologies for the cliché, a “culture of winning”. Moreover, they have the more positive captain in Strauss, something that hasn’t been said of him before. England’s batting line-up has been in good form, apart from Morgan. However, the conditions will suit Morgan, England’s best player of spin. Morgan also has a reasonable record against them, which includes both a ODI and test hundred in the blighted series of 2010. They also bat deeper into the order than Pakistan, with Swann coming in at 8 if six batsmen are played, which is surely the case.
England’s bowling attack also showed that it could adapt to different conditions in their performance in Australia. Although Bresnan has left, Finn was very impressive in India. He bowled accurately and regularly bowled at over 90mph. He may also cause a problem for the Pakistani batsmen due to his height. Anderson and Broad will also get some reverse-swing, but England will be more reliant on the new ball than Pakistan.
Although England are the number-one test side in the world, Pakistan do hold the edge for this series. A four-man bowling attack will truly be put to the test in un-bowler friendly conditions. Spin will play a major part; Swann vs Ajmal, Rehman and Hafeez may even decide the series if the pitches are dusty. England do have a stronger batting line-up, but their lack of bowling variety may hinder them. Misbah’s lack of positivity may well prevent Pakistan however. If England don’t lose the series, they firmly deserve their number one ranking.
My Prediction: 1-1.
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